Risk Analysis and Uncertainty

Risk is the variability of the actual return from the expected return associated with a given investment. The greater the variability, the riskier is the security; the lesser the variability, less risky is the security. If the return from an asset or investment is more certain, the variability would be lesser and thus less risky will the asset be. Risk is a situation wherein the probability distribution of the values a variable can take is known, even though the exact value it takes cannot be known with certainty.

Some of the factors which add to the degree of uncertainty of an investment are:

-          The process or the product becoming obsolete

-          Declining demand for the product

-          Price fluctuations

-          Inflationary tendencies

-          Change in government policy on business and

-          Foreign exchange restrictions.

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